Saturday, November 5, 2011

Final 2011-2012 Winter Forecast: Midwest Forecast


BREAKDOWN:
MIDWEST ANALYSIS
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The Midwest is in for it this year. Temperatures will be below average for pretty much the entire region. More frigid air will be stationed in the Upper Midwest region extending westward into the North Plains. This frigid air will be colder than air in, say, the lower Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. Colder air, in a nutshell, makes snow ratios rise. Snow ratios are defined as one inch of water equalling ‘x’ inches of snow. Let’s say a snowstorm hit and 10 inches of snow fell in an area. Theoretically, if you were to take a column of that 10 inches and melt it into water, you would have 1 inch of water. That would be written as 1:10, or 1 inch of water: 10 inches of snow. In cold environments, snow ratios can rise to 1:20, whereas warmer climates usually have snow ratios around 1:7, defined as wet snow. With this frigid air in place over the North Plains this winter, clippers that usually dump 1-3 inches may put down over 4 inches as the colder air increases snow ratios. These clippers will also come downwards into the Midwest more often this winter. With the Canadian frigid air mass in place, some clippers may be re-directed into the Midwest. Adding to the snowfall will be ‘Panhandle Hooker’ storms- the type of storm that produced the epic February Blizzard last year in Chicago. These storms dip down south near Oklahoma and can fire up north and spread snow across the Midwest. These are usually the big snow makers for the region. The pink area we outlined as a combination of the effect cold air may have on the clippers, as well as the Panhandle Hooker storms.





Regional times are as follows:

Nationwide Winter Forecast Release: 12:00 PM CDT
Southwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:10 PM CDT
Southeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:20 PM CDT
Northeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:30 PM CDT
Midwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:40 PM CDT
Northwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:50 PM CDT
South Central Plains Winter Forecast Release: 1:00 PM CDT

14 comments:

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I like what i SEE!!!!!!!!!! I live in Holmes county Ohio.It looks like we will get SLAMMED this year!Do you think any storms like the 2003 blizzard could occur?Again i like this forecast.

JordanR said...

Hi Andrew,
I LOVE this forecast! But i have one question. Why does the pink area take a sharp shot from Northern KY to Northern MO and does not include portions of So. IL and Central MO.?

Andrew said...

Mike- We cannot predict if exact storms will occur in similar tracks, so i'm afraid I can't comment with confidence on that matter. There is also the problem of not being able to see a track of the storm.

JordanR- The pink area is, dare I say it, potentially historic for the areas outlined. For that reason, we cut off the line as the regions you mentioned that are not included are in our 'battle zone', which is where temperatures will constantly battle it out, and snowfall will likely not be as high as the pink area.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Thanksfor answering my question.I noticed how you answered Jordanr's question.Are you saying the pink outline area could potentially get historic snowfall this year?

Andrew said...

There is a chance some areas could get some snowfall totals on the historic side.
I don't want to exaggerate things, so when I say historically, know that i say it with the utmost hesitation.

John inDetroit said...

Andrew; I live 20 miles south of Detroit Michigan based on the pink outline area approximately how much snow fall will this area receive above normal average and how much colder than average will the temperature get? Also what does the forecast for my area look like for the end of February through the end of April?

Andrew said...

John inDetroit: For the end of February thru April, winter will be slow to end, as you can see in our Early Look Spring 2012 forecast: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/p/early-look-2012-spring.html
Snowfall wise, we don't like to issue specific amounts for cities as they aren't our specialties, but Detroit likely will have above average snowfall.

Anonymous said...

What will St,louis MO BE like

Chris Perrysburg,Ohio said...

Hi Andrew, I really like the site. By the looks of things I would say us here in Perrysburg,Ohio are going to get hammerd this winter is this the case? thanks Chris

Andrew said...

Chris: That would be the case, depending on the pattern change date. Thank you for the kind words.

Anonymous said...

Hello Andrew,
Was wondering if there is a new prediction for the 2012 winter in the Chicago area? We have experienced a very mild winter to date with virtually no snow and temps way above average. Earlier predictions form various sources said we were in an area that would have cold weather and lots of snow.

Andrew said...

The pattern is changing. I assure you that snow will come your way soon. Patience is key.

Anonymous said...

HI Andrew,
Thanks for your reply about Chicago...it made me giggle! I do love snow...
I enjoy your site!

Andrew said...

Why thank you.