Saturday, January 7, 2012

Ask Questions About This Winter HERE

You may ask any questions you want pertaining to winter on this link in the comments section below.

Questions will be answered from 12-1 PM CST. Questions asked AFTER 1:00 PM CST will not be answered.

We will answer all questions.

You can ask as many questions as you want. If you need some examples, here are a few:
-Personal winter forecasts (they will be brief if you ask for yours).
-AO/NAO/La Nina/El Nino
-Terms you may not understand (i.e. Polar Vortex, AO, NAO)
-Anything else about the winter you can think of!

Ask away!

44 comments:

Joshua Steiner said...

Will there be any major snowstorms or major blizzards for the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region this winter? Areas such as Chicago, Fort Wayne, Indianapolis, or Detroit?

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.If you can recall,i asked for my personal forecast which is Holmesville Ohio.You predicted i would get hammered with heavy snow when the pattern flips due to all the rain i have recieved.Are you still thinking this will happen?Just a guess.Thanks.

Andrew said...

Joshua: The pattern flip should be able to support at least a good snow for all of the aforementioned regions. It is extremely rare to get through a winter in those areas without a good snow.

Mike: I believe that you will end up with a decent amount of snow, but with every day's passage brings a potentially lower snowfall amount total.

AJ said...

Do you think there should be thundersnow in the Chicagoland area this winter?

Kevin Conant said...

Do you think that the Southern Plains will get at least one good winter storm before the winter is over, with the NAO turning negative and the pattern flipping and all.

Andrew said...

AJ: Thundersnow is rare and only happens in extreme winter storms. However, if by some chance a Panhandle Hooker-type storm rapidly bombs out, there would be a chance for thundersnow.

Joshua Steiner said...

Do you really believe that the La Nina is going to erode away by February, even if Henry Margusity says it will? I mean, I've been watching the SST anomalies over the Central Pacific, and they seem to be strengthening. I think La Nina will continue to hold. Do You?

Andrew said...

Kevin: I do think that the Plains will get a decent snowstorm before winter is through.

Andrew said...

Joshua: I believe that, with the cool temperature anomalies now strengthening and beginning to spread westward, the Nina should hold on throughout the rest of winter. If there does happen to be an El Nino, its effects would happen towards March. The SOI is something to be watched, though. That is showing an El Nino situation right now. We will have to see as this is pretty turbulent. The expected pattern change only complicates matters.

AJ said...

Also when that lake effect snow comes down do you think it could be another Chicago blizzard type storm?I was in that storm and got pounded.I got some 5 foot snow drifts.

Anonymous said...

What do you think about an east coast snowstorm the 15 or 16 of January? Both the Euro And Gfs have shown it. The Nao looks about neutral. Does the I 95 corridor have a shot at a very snowy February? I would think because the AO seems to go negative and the SOI values are trending favorably. Thank You

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Thanks.Are the models still staying in line for the pattern change at the end of the month or so? When the pattern does change,and the jetstream is on a more southerly track,could there be some decent snowstorms that could form on it and track through the Ohio Valley up through the northeast?It just seams like the jetsteam is stuck up in Canada.

Andrew said...

AJ: The Chicago Blizzard was a once-in-30-years type storm. The Lake Effect Machine will still get cranking when true arctic air does come in.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: I could see a snowstorm hitting the Northeast. The indices you mentioned are indeed looking favorable.

Andrew said...

Mike: When the pattern does change, the jet stream will come south and start bringing in storm systems. The Ohio Valley would be affected.

AJ said...

When do you think the lake effect snow machine will really get cranking here in northwest INDIANA?Do you think we will get a snowstorm soon with at least a foot of snow?With that cold air coming down I can imagine at least 7 inches.

Andrew said...

AJ: When it comes to snowstorms this winter, we will ave to wait until Mid January onwards for any snowstorms as the jet stream is off in Canada.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.It's the 16'th year anniversary of the 1996 blizzard.I got close to 12" of snow from this storm.Southern ohio measured 14" or more.I was out of school for a few days due to this storm.The east coast got PLASTERED with feet of snow in certain areas.It would be nice if this would happen again,wouldn't it!?

AJ said...

How long would the cold air last?

Andrew said...

Mike: It would be very interesting to see that happen again.

AJ: We can expect the cold starting Late January.

weatherman said...

Andrew I'm sorry this is late but when do you think the pattern will change??? Mid January?? And also do you think the east coast (Virginia will get any snowstorms

AJ said...

By this time last year I had 2 winter storms and a blizzard.With the Chicago blizzard to come.

ronnie said...

144 on the euro shows snow for the ohio area with a deep trough

Andrew said...

Weatherman: I believe that the pattern will change around mid-Late January, and the east coast should start seeing snow soon after.

Andrew said...

Ronnie: At hour 144 the storm is in Canada. Besides, it will be too warm for any snow to fall.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Just a guess.If there is a storm on the 15-16 timeframe,would my area in Ohio get any snow?Holmes county Ohio.

ronnie said...

12 euro the 540 is all the way too florida how is it too warm ?

Andrew said...

Mike: Its a little too far out for me to confidently give an answer.

Andrew said...

Ronnie: I don't know what maps you are looking at, but the 12z ECMWF shows the 0 degree Celsius line in South WI. A warm front will pull warm air northward, hence rain.

AJ said...

Do you think there will be a major winter storm for Valparaiso,Indiana?

Andrew said...

AJ: If there is one, it will be Late January onwards.

ronnie said...

am looking at the new euro coming out right now 168 is crazy http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

Andrew said...

That would be after the storm passes through. Rain then cold.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.What day does Ronnie see snow in Ohio?I would say it's going to be too warm for snow with the warm front moving through.

Andrew said...

Mike: There will be no snow in Ohio. Maybe some backside snow, but it ought to be a rainmaker. Plenty of time for the models to shift, though. Thats why we have to watch the ensembles as well.

ronnie said...

dude the models are showing upper level mositure prob coming from the artic air

Andrew said...

Ronnie, there are more models than just the ECMWF. There are also ensembles. As for now, the 12z ECMWF Is not showing snow as the main precipitation.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Thanks for answering my questions!I surely do appreciate it!!

Andrew said...

Mike: Anytime.

AJ said...

Thank you for all the winter forecasting.Keep it up and I will visit this site every day.

Andrew said...

Thank you both for your patronage. I'm glad I could answer your questions.

Andrew said...

That about does it for the winter questions !Thanks to everyone who asked questions today! I'm glad I could help!

ronnie said...

andrew i went too under ground and look at the euro forcast for snow and it does indeed have snow flying whing the bulk will be in cleveland it show a couple tenths for ohio too so we will see

ronnie said...

andrew i went too under ground and look at the euro forcast for snow and it does indeed have snow flying whing the bulk will be in cleveland it show a couple tenths for ohio too so we will see