Saturday, January 21, 2012

Why I Think February Will Be A Wild Ride

Lets face it- this winter has been horrible for snow lovers. It has made many, if not all, become ecstatic over 1 inch 'snowstorms'. Well here I stand today telling you that there is indeed a light at the end of the tunnel. And here's why:

Potential Vorticity (PV).
Potential vorticity, in a very simple nutshell, is increased in the presence of low pressure systems. In areas where there are ridges of high pressure, PV values are lower. The PV is a characterization to tell where the polar vortex (VP) is. So let's do a comparison using the ECMWF model.
Here's the 24 hour forecast from the ECMWF model.
We have PV values very strong over around Asia, indicative of strong storm systems. Something i've picked up on is that weather from around the world can help determine weather for the US. Basically, if Asia's getting a huge storm, and storms move from Asia across the Pacific into the US, it would be logical to think that the US would get a big storm. We will focus on that later. In the image above, we can see a polar vortex mainly displaced off into Asia as two ridges are pushing into the polar vortex to make it attempting to split. These two ridges are essentially keeping the polar vortex and associated potential vorticity values out in Asia, therefore displacing the cold and making the whole ordeal turbulent and henceforth causing a fiasco between the AO and NAO due to the displaced polar vortex which essentially makes up the AO.
Here's hour 240 of the ECMWF. It is long range, so use with caution. We can see a major storm system making its way onshore the Northwest  CONUS (continental US) as the polar vortex is once again displaced and spread out across Asia and the US.

Here's the thing- the polar vortex is not nearly as strong as it was in December. The way it is misshapen and disfigured these days has led me to believe that the polar vortex is on its last breaths. Because it's not common to have a piece of the polar vortex in the Northwest US. Additionally, because it is so disfigured, it is not able to reconstruct itself due to intervening ridges and a general unfavorable scenario to see the vortex do so. If the polar vortex was fine, we would see something resembling a band of high potential vorticity levels around the North Pole (white circles in the images), with no orange in the US or Asia. If we see one more big Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, I think there is a decent shot at seeing the polar vortex split off and die out in some aspects.
The GLAAM index is falling, as shown in today's post, indicating the opportunity for the pattern to shift is coming up very soon, if not already happening.

So here's my thoughts: I expect snowstorms to be on the rise and cold shots to become more common. I believe that the record breaking temperature days are behind us, and February is going to get a whole lot of revenge from December. Snowstorms will increase, particularly in the Midwest/Great Lakes and possibly the Northeast. Lake Effect Snow will be once again a commonplace occurrence.

19 comments:

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.What about the Ohio Valley.Particulary Ohio?Do you see snowstorms affecting this region or not?

Andrew said...

Because the GLAAM is switching back negative, a pattern more typical of a La Nina will setting up, meaning the Ohio Valley would theoretically get obliterated with snow. I say theoretically because there are so many more factors that the atmosphere has to work with, but this is very encouraging.

eddie said...

what is the new outlook for detroit big SNOWstorms and less warm ups

Andrew said...

That is what I am thinking, yes.

Anonymous said...

What about Minnesota?

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.So this means a THUMBS up for big snows for me?

Anonymous said...

Check out the AO/NAO forecasts!:
AO:
http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_ext_ao_bias.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

NAO:
http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_ext_nao_bias.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

- Reid

BDB from Hays said...

Andrew, I really like the post as I am really ready for some more snow. Even though we got 13" back during the Christmas week blizzard, it seems as if we've gotten nothing with all these dry and warm days since the week AFTER Christmas... What do you think for Hays, Kansas? Will we be in on the snow, or are we done?

Anonymous said...

hey so will Charlotte NC see any snow in February thanks

Anonymous said...

The AO, NAO, and PNA all trend very favorably torwards February. As Andrew has said before, this means cold and SNOW for the midwest and east. Noreasters are comming!!! Winter is looking great for its end months. All of the people who claim this is wishcasting, please leave meteorology up to meteorolgists. Thank You. Andrew, good and informative post. Well done!!! Thank you for what you do! BTW got 2.5 inches of snow!!! And also some ice!

Anonymous said...

The Midwest and Great Lakes have had plenty of snow. I wish the Plains would get some snow. Topeka, KS has 0.2 inches on the season. Kansas City has 0.4 inches total at the airport. In Columbia, Mo, where I live, we have got 2.5 inches, which is depressing. Last winter we got almost 60 inches. Our average is like 16-18 inches, so that was crazy. Even if we didn't get anything this year, the average over the last 2 winters would be somewhere like 28 inches, which is still above normal! What do you think February will be for central MO?

Owen12789 said...

What about Springfield, IL for snow? Any predictions?

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: Cold is on the way. And snow.

Mike: A thumbs up indeed.

Reid: Yes, the forecasts are very encouraging.

BDB from Hays: It looks very much like the pattern is changing, so I would expect some snow to come down in your areas soon.

Anonymous #2: I would expect some flakes to fly in Charlotte.

Anonymous #3: Thank you for the report and the kind words!

Anonymous #4: If the La Nina pattern takes over as we are anticipating per the diving GLAAM, your region would begin to see the heavy hitters in the league of snowstorms.

Owen: I can easily see some snow coming on in February for Springfield.

Anonymous said...

Andrew, did you watch Frank Strait of Accuweather on his blog? He was hilarious! Even he, somebody who hates the cold and hates the wonderful snow,admits that the pattern is changing!!! Clearly, we all are not wishcasting. The idea about a storm getting stuck in the south and hooking up with northern stream energy seems possible with the favorable teleconnections. It is certainly real hope for easterners! Hope you get some snow, and thank you for the terrific job you do! You are consistently posting great articles! Thanks again!

Anonymous said...

Go Snow!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Exactly what i'm thinking anonymous.Go snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yahoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Thank you! I don't know if you've heard this, but it sounds like the ECMWF Weeklies are cold and stormy.

Anonymous said...

so you said no snow for charlotte nc?how much would we get?

Andrew said...

I cannot accurately determine that right now.