Saturday, February 25, 2012

Brief Look into Winter 2012-2013


Here are forecasted precipitation and temperature anomalies (respectfully) for DJF (December, January, February). These forecasts are from the Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) forecast system at the Climate Prediction Center.

For precipitation, the ECCA is projecting above normal precipitation across the northern US, but also majorly in the West US, where a 40% chance is present. For the North US, it looks like widespread areas of up to 10% are present. The same is present in the Northeast.

As for temperatures, it appears a major area of below normal temperatures are forecasted in the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, South Plains, Southeast, Northwest, Southwest. The High Plains and Northeast are slightly above normal, though.

This is simply a look into next winter and not a forecast.

7 comments:

ERN WX said...

I don't like the way the cpc handles this. I am thinking a weak el nino or neutal winter. I know it will change. They should be expecting above normal precip thru the south. Just my thoughts. I know that you have your own thoughs on the winter, Andrew.

ERN WX said...

I will keep an eye on next year's winter. I bet it will be much better than this one.

ERN WX said...

Hello Andrew. Just something to say. Could you prohibit profanity on the live chat bar? Some sites people can be nasty. I don't know if you have thought about that. Just making sure. Thanks again, ERN WX.

Anonymous said...

I think it's too early to determine 2012-2013 winter or even to have any thoughts about it. I mean come on!! this winter is not finish yet and we can't tell if we will have an accurate storm track next week! This winter was so hard to predict and I think the models this year went so crazy to track the storms...But not bad to start talking about it..

Andrew said...

Eastern Wx, 3rd comment: I have thought about it, and I'm not sure I want to be doing it, as I am not around for most of the day on weekdays.

Anonymous: It is indeed way too early to determine next winter's forecast. What I am doing is giving preliminary guesses and model's long range views to give people an idea of what may happen.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I agree with ERN WX about he said about profanity on the sidebar.You should see some other sites like SNOWDAY.COM.They basically use every word in the book on that site.I would hate to see your site turn into a breeding ground for those kind of people who don't know how to use proper language on the internet.I am saying this as a true follower of your site.By the way,i'm looking forward to next winter,i'm sure we will all have more snow & cold next winter.

bweather said...

I live in the mid-alantic Va. Let me tell you if we end up
getting a weak-moderate El Nino, then we will be in business for cold and above average snow.