Saturday, February 25, 2012

February 28-29 Storm Discussion

"Dynamic System Signals Spring's Commencement"

A dynamic system is poised to strike the US and bring everything from snow to possible tornadoes. Here's the latest:

The strong system that comes through will be cold on the north part, indicating that the event will be quite a snowy one. Accumulations at this point look to be pretty substantial, with this strong a system not keeping 12 inches+ out of the question. Then again, it is a bit too far out to forecast snowfall. Any snowfall should be wind driven, with this strong a system making for possible blizzard conditions in the Dakotas into Minnesota.

Severe Weather
There does look to be some severe weather possible with this system. Lower, middle, and upper level winds look to be pretty strong during this event, with 700mb winds possible reaching above 70 knots (80 MPH). A strong jet stream (over 130 knots (150 MPH) are possible) combined with a strong lower level jet stream (70 knots + possible) makes for a very potent tornado set-up in the spring and summer. However, it is late February. Thus comes the issue of lack of instability. Without instability and lifting mechanisms, it looks like this event will cause some possible brief spin-ups in north parts of the rain area, with some more potent rotation in the severe weather area.

Questions can be asked below.


ERN WX said...

That system is looking interesting. Some folks who haven't seen any good snow are going get a good amount. Sadly, others will likely deal with svr wx. Andrew, as of last check there was a 963 mb low in Eastern Canada. That low was quite neat! It has been pounding my area with strong winds! An interesting spring storm.

ERN WX said...

Report: wind gust to 50 mph (est.)