Saturday, February 25, 2012

Potential Severe Weather Event Feb. 28 (Issued 2/25/12)

Top left image: 700mb winds
Top right image: 300mb winds
Bottom left image: 850mb winds
Bottom right image: Precipitation
The set-up for severe weather continues to intensify with major wind speeds at heights that are monitored for tornado development. If winds at any of the 3 wind images are high, it usually indicates a risk for some spinning motion in the air which could then cause tornadoes.
What the GFS is currently showing is a few clusters of storms that would then evolve into a squall line. Squall lines are traditionally unfavorable for tornadoes as they are cells in a linear formation, like trying to have car wheels turning inside a box. It just doesn't work.

It looks like this level of wind shear would be favorable for some tornadic activity, but it is impossible to predict where tornadoes will occur. These are just guesses.

There is the issue on how there is virtually no CAPE, or instability, forecast for the storms to use. Additionally, the Lifted Index (lift) and CINH (Cap that stops instability) are next to nothing, if nothing. The non-presence of those indices pretty much cancels any potential of severe weather. However, the way that this is mapped out tells me that a brief, weak tornado is possible. Thunderstorms will be likely as this is a squall line when you come down to it.

7 comments:

Aran said...

Read my hazardous weather outlook.It mentions this.TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES were issued on this day last year in 09 and in 07.


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=lot&product=HWO&issuedby=lot

ERN WX said...

I saw that the SPC has a severe wx area out for the 28th. Thank you for answering my question about live chats.

Anonymous said...

What is your IQ Andrew?

ERN WX said...

Anybody see the Chesapeake Bay effect snow? Truly amazing!!! LES is going crazy!!! Anonymous, from what I know about Andrew he is very smart.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous: I am guessing that Andrew's IQ is between 160 and 170.

ERN WX said...

His IQ might be even higher. Andrew, is really smart. He does a wonderful job running this site. I certainly appreciate the hard work he puts into forecasting!

Andrew said...

Eastern WX: It will definitely be something to watch.

Anonymous: If you are referring to that IQ test, it is not made or sponsored by us.

Eastern WX: Thank you for the kind words, Eastern WX!