Tuesday, February 7, 2012

*HUGE* Snowstorm In The Works for Midwest, Northeast??

12z ECMWF Hour 216
The 12z ECMWF is showing a very strong storm in the Ohio Valley at Hour 216 of its latest 12z run. Current indications are that this low could be as strong as a 992 millibar storm system (extremely low, for those who do not know). In the image, we are seeing a deep arctic outbreak behind the system, with a warm sector of air being pulled north, making for a potential severe weather threat.

The GFS has been showing this system a lot recently. Something I have learned is that when a model starts to trend with a storm, it usually means something is looking important in the model.
0z GGEM Hour 240
Something else I've learned is that when multiple models start showing a storm, it also means something may be bound to happen.

The NAO will be something to watch as well.
The areas I have circled is the timeframe for the storm. Notice how the NCEP and ESRL/PSD differ on the storm. Personally, I am wanting to go with the ESRL/PSD, as the NCEP is basically just the GFS/GFS ENS. I don't exactly know what the PSD uses, but it appears that there is definitely some different algorithms than what the NCEP uses, as shown in the difference of the forecasts.
Courtesy ESRL
As seen, a -NAO brings a cold and snowy pattern over the northeast as a Greenland Block forms (high pressure over the Greenland region). The opposite happens during a +NAO.
PSD Ensemble 500mb Spaghetti Hour 288
PSD Ensemble 500mb Spaghetti Hour 312
The PSD Ensemble members are also showing this storm, which to me is a big boost to confidence. Again, I don't know what the PSD uses, but it is different from the NCEP. The PSD sees the storm impacting the Great Lakes/Midwest region, but then carries the storm into the Northeast, whereas the ECMWF brings the storm system into the Canada. At the same time, both the PSD/ECMWF are very similar to their solutions to the storm system. Again, very encouraging.


Some reminders about this storm:
•It is still in the very long range, and thus subject to major change.
•This is in no way set in stone.
•Snowfall amounts are widely varied run-to-run of GFS.
•PSD/ECMWF combination is a very good sign.

Any questions can be asked below.
~Andrew

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Andrew, I have a good feeling about this storm . I believe for Ohio this will be the big one we have been waiting for. I just got this weird feeling its going to be more then ohio can handle that and there local forecasters have no clue.

Aran said...

Do you think it could hit my area if it happens?I have a strange feeling too.

mike paulocsak said...

Hey Andrew how's it going?Hopefully your fine.Could this possibly be the BIG ONE for my area in Ohio?I live in Holmes county.I don't knowe if this is the same storm or not,but i have been keeping track on the ECMWF the last few days and it keeps indicating a system to develop.Like you said,when it usually keeps showing up,somethings bound to occur.I agree with anonymous above me,the locals may be caught off guard.

mike paulocsak said...

Sorry Andrew,i accidently spelled a few words wrong.I guess i got excited.It's the whole snow deal i guess!!

Anonymous said...

What day is this storm is gonna happen

Owen12789 said...

Hey Andrew,
I will repeat my chorus from all winter, do you think that Springfield, IL will get in on this one finally? :)

Thanks,
Owen

Anonymous said...

Another spectacular GFS model run hour 264:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

- Reid

DLCS said...

My friends and I have been watching this for awhile now. If I'm not mistaken its showing 2.5" of water equilvelent in precip that would be over 20" of snow for northern Illinois. Would be a dream come true for us snowplow guys. But the way this winter is going, I'm not holding my breath. Thanks for putting this up as now I know were not seeing things.

ERN WX said...

It would be good for us all to get at least one good snow. I have been seeing hints of this on the models for a bit so there is hope. If the nao is negative, storm on!!! Will have more.

ERN WX said...

It would be good for us all to get at least one good snow. I have been seeing hints of this on the models for a bit so there is hope. If the nao is negative, storm on!!! Will have more.

eddie said...

Andrew is it true if there is a
-NAO and -PNA there will just be a big trough of cold air

THANKS and again thanks for all you do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Looks like boring rain for the mid atlantic

Wally Gullang Huntley, Il said...

Sorry to say but I didn't catch all of what Tom Skilling said but I do know he did mention that something big could be coming. He was looking sometime the end of next week. But being this late in the season, hay, I'm ready for Spring. But I do have to use up the gas in the snow blower. Bring it on

Anonymous said...

I remember 1984 - little winter until the end of February then ice then snow all through March.

Maine man said...

Possible coastal storm this weekend in New England per WeatherBell-JB. Accu-weather says a possible also. Maybe the pattern is changing for awhile.

Anonymous said...

If you live in Ohio,just expect rain from this not snow!

Anonymous said...

Snow gods please bring us a size winter storm!

Anonymous said...

I checked the weather channel for next week,and the high temps.are in the upper thirties to lower forties.So more then likely this will be all rain if this does happen.

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: As of Now, Ohio doesn't exactly look to be in the best spot for snow.

Aran: It could- your area may be on the rain/snow line. I would watch it closely.

Mike: All is well over here, and I hope it is for you too. As I mentioned, Ohio does not appear to be in the best spot for snow FOR NOW. I would still very much watch this system.

Anonymous #2: February 14-18.

Owen: Depending on the final track, it could, but right now it does not appear to be looking too good. I would still very much watch it.

Reid: I find that the GFS is flipping too much for me in the last few runs. Just my 2 cents.

DLCS: With this strong a system, anything is possible. Good luck with your plowing business!

Eastern WX: The NAO does not look to be extremely negative at this timeframe for the storm, maybe neutral.

Eddie: More like a -NAO/+PNA.

Anonymous #3: You never know. ;)

Wally: Yes, Skilling is getting excited. And he is never one to hype things, so it is something to watch.

Maine Man: It is certainly possible.

Anonymous #4 and #5: You never know. ;)

Anonymous #6: Long range forecasts are not the best forecasts. I personally like to figure out the logistics (like the stuff I post) before I go with a forecast rather than just a forecast from weather.com or accuweather. just my 2 cents.