Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Signs that Potentially Record Breaking Warmth May Continue

If there's one thing to be learned this winter, it is this: Many models look like they're just taking stabs in the dark. And this was true, especially for respected models like the ECMWF and GFS, to those lesser-used JMA, CMC, NOGAPS models.
But there were a select couple of correct models. The model shown above is the NAEFS Ensembles, or the North American Ensemble Forecast System. This model was the lighthouse in this sea of model uncertainty. It nailed all predictions for a warm winter. That said, I am investing confidence in it yet again to formulate this forecast.

Using the NAEFS, the period between the next 8 days and next 14 days (Days 8-14) tells of widespread areas with temperatures that are at a 90%+ probability for being above the normal temperature. This is most common in the Plains and Canada, with a little cooler forecast to the east.
Now, I am a little hesitant to believe this, because the atmospheric feature that has been causing this record-breaking heat is now moving away. It is a mega-ridge of high pressure, and it is slowly moving to the east, offshore the US. This means more storm systems will be able to pass through that area and therefore create a more progressive temperature pattern of cold fronts and warm fronts. Or so it would be thought.
While the NAEFS is not a forecaster for hourly SLP (sea level pressure (low areas are low pressure systems, high areas of SLP are high pressure areas)), using long range precipitation accumulations, I can determine that the storm track looks to be suppressed south according to the NAEFS. This would indeed allow a buildup of air to occur in the North Tier of the US, and this air would likely be warm, using the temperature forecast.



mike paulocsak said...

The winter of 2012-2013 will probably be a warm one too with not much snow in the Ohio valley! 1995-1996 was a winner for my area in Ohio.Cleveland had a record breaking 100" plus.I live south about 3 counties down from them.Remarkably we got more snow from the 1996 blizzard then they did.Southern and central Ohio got hammered from this storm.Also,next winter will probably have more rain then snow in the Ohio Valley,just a thought.

ERN WX said...

Mike, as for the 2012-2013 winter, I am very confident that it will be colder and snowier than the last awful winter. The big thing that STRONGLY supports a cold snowy winter for areas like the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and East is the extremely low sunspot cycle. It is indeed very early to be sure, but at a minimum I am sure it will be a little cooler and a little snowier for your region. The sunspot cycle is similar to 2009-2010 winter. I am not guaranteeing that this winter will be anything lijke that, but a colder, snowier winter looks more likely than normal. I personally want to look at fall temps to get a good grip on where the cold and snow will be. My very prelim , Andrew has an outlook that I like for the winter, thoughts are a weak El Nino, a negative NAO, neutral AO, and -PNA. This would generally support a colder, snowier winter for many. Again, this is VERY prelim, but I think it has value. And Mike, I will gladly take a winter like 1995 and 1995 again. Take care.

ERN WX said...

Mike, I am 100% sure you have seen Andrew's prelim thoughts. Andrew, I really like your ideas.

Alice McDonald said...

Locals say Ft. Wayne was the warmest city anywhere in the US yesterday (Continental, I presume). Wow. Joshua, did you see that too?

Andrew said...

Mike: I'm having a feeling that winter 2912-2013 will be better for everyone. This past winter is pretty much rock bottom.

Eastern WX: You are right- fall temps determine a lot of what winter may signal.

Alice: If you have confirmation on that, that would be incredible!

Mark said...
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Alice McDonald said...

Andrew, I heard them saying this on the local news. I can only confirm it was hot :)

mike paulocsak said...

Last fall in the Ohio area temps.were well above normal.So it doesn't surprise me at all that it would continue through the winter as it did.Also,well above rainfall went with this.If all the rain we had in Ohio would have been snow,we would have shattered snowfall records north to south,and east to west.Ohio would have been one of the snowiest states in the eastern United States if this would have occured.Usually northern Ohio gets a big storm every three years or so as the same as southern Ohio.We will have to wait to see what mother nature has in store for next winter.I'm going to concentrate on the short term weather,as soon as fall gets here i'll start to focus on winter!