As you can see, there is a deep depression off the coast of California. This signifies the presence of low pressure systems in the area. Storms that form in that region typically shift east into the Southwest, where those storms have traditionally been known to then move east into the South Plains and fire up potentially strong storms. Notice the arch in the Southern Plains. This indicates the presence of a ridge of high pressure, which carries warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico within the region. Should storm systems move into the Southern Plains, the ridge would move east or north, and essentially form a frontal boundary which would bring north warm and humid air into the Southern Plains. A dry line would already be in place over west Texas. Saying that the storm system progresses east, and the cold front follows, severe weather may very well initiate.
But- let's not get ahead of ourselves. Gazing over the anomaly correlation (a verification tool) gives North America a verification score of roughly 75% over the past 2 months, give or take a week. Now- 75% may seem low. But, remember that the atmosphere is potentially the most complex mechanism known to man, maybe second to the universe itself. Having to keep track, and then forecast, an entire continent is an extremely hard task. Now, 75% seems pretty impressive. Of course, models can do better, but 75% is a fair score.
•Expect a May outlook being formed over the weekend and likely up for release the following weekend.
•The 'Place to Be' is once again up and running. It gives the best weather place to be in the nation for the day.
•My apologies for the absence of forecast discussions. I am working to get them up and going again.