Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Relatively Quiet Week in Store

The next 8-10 days are looking to be relatively quiet in terms of severe weather for the nation, as a strong vortex in the Gulf of Alaska looks to weaken and may also weaken storms that pass through the Southwest. That's where the 'quiet' part ends and the 'relatively' begins.
As you can see, there is a deep depression off the coast of California. This signifies the presence of low pressure systems in the area. Storms that form in that region typically shift east into the Southwest, where those storms have traditionally been known to then move east into the South Plains and fire up potentially strong storms. Notice the arch in the Southern Plains. This indicates the presence of a ridge of high pressure, which carries warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico within the region. Should storm systems move into the Southern Plains, the ridge would move east or north, and essentially form a frontal boundary which would bring north warm and humid air into the Southern Plains. A dry line would already be in place over west Texas. Saying that the storm system progresses east, and the cold front follows, severe weather may very well initiate.
But- let's not get ahead of ourselves. Gazing over the anomaly correlation (a verification tool) gives North America a verification score of roughly 75% over the past 2 months, give or take a week. Now- 75% may seem low. But, remember that the atmosphere is potentially the most complex mechanism known to man, maybe second to the universe itself. Having to keep track, and then forecast, an entire continent is an extremely hard task. Now, 75% seems pretty impressive. Of course, models can do better, but 75% is a fair score.

Side notes
•Expect a May outlook being formed over the weekend and likely up for release the following weekend.
•The 'Place to Be' is once again up and running. It gives the best weather place to be in the nation for the day.
•My apologies for the absence of forecast discussions. I am working to get them up and going again.

Andrew

7 comments:

ERN WX said...

High for today: 80F. RH reached 21%. Max gust was 18mph. Dry conditions continue across the CWA. Significant rain for the weekend???????? Gfs says so.

ERN WX said...

12z ECMWF and 12z GFS, indicate the potential for a significant rain event for the Southeast, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast. This could be powerful relief for these drought stricken areas. Qpf could be in the 1-3 inch range for a very large area. This is looking helpful. Some snow is also possible.

ERN WX said...

Hello, Andrew. Will you put a post on the potential weekend storm for the East? Thanks. We are hoping for a significant amount of rain. Conditions remain very favorable for wildfires across the region.

ERN WX said...

The usual model mayhem with the weekend storm.................

ERN WX said...

There are still several wildfires in the NE.

mike paulocsak said...

A stationary storm system may be what the doctor has ordered this coming weekend!A aystem is supposed to set up shop east of Ohio for a few days.This may bring decent rainfall

ERN WX said...

The system you mentioned, Mike has gotten me excited. TAke care!!!