Friday, May 11, 2012

East Pacific Invest 90 - May 11, 2012

Eastern Pacific Invest 90 has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and indications are that the storm may reach major hurricane status. Let's take a look.

Latest storm tracks have two sets of tracks- one with a more westward bias, and a tighter consensus (that quickly fans out) for the storm to move eastward. I would rather go with the eastern bias for now due to the abundance of models with that track.

The intensity forecasts are slightly more intimidating. Right now, every model has this storm reaching tropical storm status in the next 24-36 hour period. Beyond that, there are indications that hurricane status may be achieved, but that involves only a handful of models. This looks to be mainly a tropical storm-lower end hurricane event.

We will keep you up to date on EP Invest 90.


ERN WX said...

Perfect time for one to develop out there. With El Nino developing that area will be an area to always watch from now on.I am buyin g the idea of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic torwards the end of the month. Basically the tropics may try to get their act going early, beause once Nino takes over the Atlantic will be quiet. I will try to post my winter thoughts./

Andrew said...

Yeah, any tropical activity will have to beat out a neutral-going-on-Nino ENSO situation to get some good activity. I am eagerly awaiting your winter thoughts.

ERN WX said...

Thanks, Andrew. I am a bit surprised with some things.