Friday, May 11, 2012

Atlantic Tropical Troubles May Be Brewing

Figure 1- MSLP at hour 306 of the 12z FIM.

Figure 2- 10m winds (knots) at hour 306 of the 12z FIM.
Tropical troubles may be brewing for the Caribbean and Atlantic waters, as the latest FIM model is showing tropical storm-status winds present in the waters south of Cuba.
Per images from more recent timeframes from this same 12z FIM run, here are some key points:

•The system looks to begin and strengthen originally to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula.
•A shift north-northeast looks likely following the formation.
•Florida would indeed be at some risk level should this happen.
•An out to sea solution appears to be the likely one at this time.

All of the above statements are subject to potentially major changes, as we are far away from this timeframe.
However, now is the best time to bring about concern, as warnings must be given as soon as is reasonably possible.



Anonymous said...

This system is shown to be so powerful that it will suck the Gulf moisture across the Atlantic. The Pacific is nothing now but large sfc highs. No wonder the Plains is dry during tornado season. That's the way weather works. When the inactive region is in need of activating, it's like the current active region must deactivate.

ERN WX said...

If things go as I hope, I will be able to put out my winter thoughts!!! Sorry, I haven't gotten them out yet. /

ERN WX said...

El Nino may have its hand in the dry Plains weather. My areas drought has been pretty well damaged. I hope a drought doesn't form in your area. Severe wx is lacking for just about everyone./

ERN WX said...

If you like winter weather or hate it you might want to read this. Also special thanks to Andrew, who runs this site so well and is allowing me to post this. Thanks, Andrew!!! Yes, it is a long way away, but their are classic indicators. Weak El Nino is most favored. First the Pac Northwest. Usual weak Nino impacts. Warmer than normal and dry. Snowfall below average. Southwest, temps about normal and precip likely above average. BIG storms will occur. Not as wet as some Ninos though. The Mountains( Denver and the like), normal temps, normal precip, and above normal snow is favored. Far Northern Plains will probably have above normal temps, below normal precip, and slightly below normal snow. But you will see more snow than the past terrible winter. Midwest, temps slightly below normal favored, and with a -NAO in control based on sunspot activity, snowfall may be slightly above normal. Includes Ohio valley. Southeast, below avg temps, above avg precip, above average snow for most! South Ecntral, temps below average, precip likely well above normal, and snow should be above average. Northeast/Mid Atlantic, below average temps except New England (normal), above avg precip, abv avg snow. If a -NAO/Nino couplet develops, just about everyone will have above avg snow. Based on climatology, long range models, and experience. Sources: CPC, Illinios edu, Albany edu. Not the Weather Centre's forecast. Just my thoughts. WInter is long distance so confidence isn't great. Thanks again, Andrew!!!

Andrew said...

ERN WX: I'm very impressed. I agree with your forecast. The East Coast will definitely get their share of snow this season if the ENSO plays its part. Thanks for posting!

Anonymous said...

I haven't seen a central plains winter yet. I know sc and se-KS gets mild winters but only compared to rest of the state. The IV quadrant of KS is humid subtropical so winters could be back to wet.

ERN WX said...

I am thinking Kansas may do decently in the snow department. A suppressed storm track looks helpful. Kansas has the best storms!!!!!!!!!! Thanks Andrew!!!/

WinterStorm said...

ERN WX, how do you think southeast Michigan will do this year with snow? Thanks.