With tomorrow's heightened alert by the Storm Prediction Center, I have decided now is a good time to debut The Weather Centre's new storm alert system. Basically, if I see a risk of severe weather is on the horizon, after peering over the models, I will outline areas using the colors on the lefthand part of the screen. Keep in mind this key is only for the risk of storms, as in thunderstorms. When you get into the 'elevated' region is when severe storms become possible.
I have outlined northern Texas and much of Oklahoma under the 'High' risk of thunderstorms, seeing as instability has skyrocketed from the 0z GFS to the 12z GFS. In addition to as much as 4500 j/kg of instability with very little cap to stop storms from forming, shearing on the order of 30 to 50 knots is possible in these areas, leading me to believe that initial storms forming along the dry line may very well be supercells. Eventually, a more large hail risk should develop, and this will be the big risk. Instability as high as 4500 j/kg will promote very strong updrafts. These updrafts will keep pushing rain back up into the clouds to form larger and larger hailstones.
This is not a product of the SPC, NWS, or any government weather service. This is meant as a guidance product and should not be used in place of official government products.