|Overall Potential for Severe Weather|
|Probability of severe weather|
Thunderstorms should fire along a stationary front connected to a nearby low pressure systen and associated dryline in Texas. The tense clashing of air between the stationary front should result in initiation of showers and storms, likely close to the low pressure system. As the storms form, they will be in the midst of a fair 3000+ j/kg of instability. Hail does appear to be a major threat, with a skew-t from north central Oklahoma identifying up to 1.6 inch hailstones falling.
There will be some potential for tornadoes, but that chance is not high. Eventually, these supercells will converge into one or more clusters and become a more hail/damaging wind threat. I will not rule out the potential for these storms to become derecho formations.