Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Severe Risk on Friday Will Complete The '3 Days of Rain'


There is a severe weather risk for the Midwest and eastern Plains into the middle Great Lakes for Friday, May 4th.

A boundary of sorts looks to set up in the area outlined. It does appear that instability will be high in the highlighted area, giving storms a very well developed breeding ground. A sharp lake breeze from Lake Michigan in a southwest direction may very well feed into this instability and ignite some intense thunderstorms. A wind field that will be going opposite directions on different sides of this boundary is making me concerned for some rotation. However, considering that the major shearing and upper level wind dynamics are farther north, tornadoes will not be a huge concern.

In southwest Texas, another boundary may ignite some intense storms. This would likely be along a traditional dry line, which would incite the potential for some rotation. That remains to be seen in the long term.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

You know when a forecaster is not confident when they use the term "boundary of sorts" lol

ERN WX said...

I don't know if you are attempting to be rude or not, so just note forecasters never have 100% confidence. It can be a little chalenging determining boundaries. Esp stationary fronts.

ERN WX said...

If you are a forecaster in any way be honest, are you ever 100% confident? Do you ever have low confidence forecasts?

Aran said...

I predict weather in my town and sometimes record it and compare it to what really happens.I am never 100% confident.

Anonymous said...

That's exactly what I am saying guys. I am not confident in this one either. I am simply stating the obvious. But now people think that I really was trying to be rude. And in answer to your question, yes, I do have low confidence in most storm situations, especially on Day 3. Andrew, I am sorry that this argument happened, but apparently I was being "rude." You do a great job with this blog, Andrew. It's just some of the people who post comments on here...

Andrew said...

The reason I said 'boundary of sorts' was because I know there is a boundary on the model I was looking at. However, I spent more time looking at other severe weather indices than attempting to determine the boundary's own indices. Additionally, this remains a low confidence event.

As for the rudeness, from what I can see, ERN WX was just asking a question. Sure, anyone can interpret that as being rude (me included), but I believe that this one was just a question. I do apologize if you were offended.

ERN WX said...

Anonymous, I misinterpreted what you said. I am sincerely sorry. I apologize. I did not mean what I said in a rude way. I am not that kind of person. Sorry everyone, if I did something I shouldn't have.