Saturday, May 19, 2012

Severe Weather in Plains Today; Enhanced Hail Threat Evident

Overall Severe Weather Threat

Hail Threat
There is a severe weather threat over the Plains today, with large hail being the main threats. Tornado and damaging wind threats are also slightly enhanced.

It is looking as if the atmosphere is going to be moist enough to provide some stronger storms, unlike areas to the east, where the air is extremely dry. As of now, it does appear that instability values are within the 1000 j/kg realm within the slight risk area. However, shearing values in the atmosphere, while they are substantial, are located to the west. I do believe that, with time, we should see these shearing values shift east. The reason they are currently to the west is that there is indeed a dry line just off the Rocky Mountain range, as seen below.

There is a dryline just off the Rockies and a cold front trailing into the Southwest. I am thinking that this cold front will be able to catch up with the dry line and spark thunderstorms later in the afternoon. According to the SPC's WRF-NMM, development should really start at around 5:00 PM CDT, and intensify throughout the evening and late evening hours.

Storm Spot: Concordia, Kansas to Hastings, Nebraska
(Storm Spot serves as an indicator for the best thunderstorms and severe weather)

Andrew

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

There were many tornadoes reported in Harper and Kingman counties in KS. Attica (remember that town?) had a significant tornado and damage report today. Track and duration unknown but these all were slow moving tornadoes (25 mph). I was driving around my area to look and circled a few times after noticing a rainshaft, possible clear slot, and greenish shelf cloud. I noticed a possible wall cloud wannabe with motionless scud behind two seperate rainshafts in a rain-free region. But it was weakened or already dead and just dissapated. One shaft tilted toward the rain-free area, probably rain-footing the updraft. That upper half of the line did weaken greatly in minutes before arrival. That lowering was not rotating and maybe not one of those particular tornadic mesos. I chose not to report. I almost made a wind report at home due to straight-line winds from a squall with winds close to 50 mph but no damage in progress. No damage afterall and rain water receded so reporting wasn't necessary. Still waiting to get spotter number from NWS Skywarn. With SN, this was good practice going mobile and spotting first time. Glad I didn't report or else I could land in hot water.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Wow! Sounds very exciting! Thanks for sharing!

Anonymous said...

The Harper tornado was just rated an EF3.

Anonymous said...

How rude of me. Thanks Andrew! Oh and the super storm is looking too unconfident attm from SPC. Severe potential could be there but maybe at the wrong place at the wrong time. Depends on jets and instability vs inhibition. Take care and continue the good work!

ERN WX said...

Anonymous, that sounds like something I want to see! Very interesting! Kansas is probably the best storm chasing area in the world. Thank you for posting this! The long range may have something for many of us. Don't worry with the spotter number, they took a while to give me mine. PHI CWA?/

ERN WX said...

Anonymous, that sounds like something I want to see! Very interesting! Kansas is probably the best storm chasing area in the world. Thank you for posting this! The long range may have something for many of us. Don't worry with the spotter number, they took a while to give me mine. PHI CWA?/