Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Debby to Ram Florida, Be Pushed Out to Sea

Tropical Storm Debby has begun to move east at 3 MPH, and this very slow movement is expected to continue until late Wednesday, when Debby begins to rev up and crash into Florida. When Debby does crash into Florida, it can be expected that weakening into a tropical depression will occur.

Following the Florida landfall, the NHC track takes Debby on a curving northeast path that appears to be going out to sea. Considering a climatologically favorable track is for Debby to curve up the coast and possibly hit New England (like many winter storms), that would be a favored option. However, the forecast models are finally in agreement that Debby should be kicked out to sea from the get-go after leaving Florida.

This seems likely, considering a cold front with trailing high pressure will be pushing south, resulting in a squeeze of Debby eastward. At that point, Debby will be too far away from the coast to hug it.


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