Sunday, June 24, 2012

Debby Track Still a Toss Up; Florida Landfall Seeming More Possible

The National Hurricane Center has shifted eastward, and now calls for a landfall in Louisiana, dangerously close to New Orleans, Louisiana. Considering that Katrina hit that region several years ago, the threat of a tropical system making another landfall will likely put many residents on edge.
However, the track remains very up in the air. I took a glance at GFS Ensemble members, and they are literally all over the place. The majority of them appear to take a Florida path before going out to sea. Here is a look at dynamical models from the 12z model suite.
The models shown above here show a favored track into the Florida region. It should be noted, however, that there remains a spread in potential track from Florida into Texas. At this point in time, it seems probable that a Florida landfall is likely at this point in time.

More updates will appear on the Facebook page as well as on here.


Svr expert said...

NOT all mdls were wrong. GFS, SREF dominated. Just the nws is too biased. Euro's falt. I have been calling for FL. Most mdls were saying FL. NHC failed. NOT mdls. Andrew, could you verify this? Thanks.

Manatee said...

They are reporting a 100% chance of rain today. For once, they got the forecast correct.

This is nuts and the weather channel just beeps a warning of some sort about every 2 minutes (literally). In the time I've written this, I've heard 5 "warnings".

Not being a native Floridian, I can say this is the most rain I've ever seen in one period of time; not to mention the forecast has it lasting till Tuesday. The NHC is really quite humorous at their inability to predict the storm's path...I know that no models are matching up, but I'm curious why they continue to insist it's going to hit TX when only 20-25% of the models show it even coming close to TX. I know they are the "experts" but I hope they are better qualified than the financial "experts" that (im)properly predicted the Depression we're in now...

Andrew said...

Svr: Yes, some models did keep with a Florida track throughout the lifespan of Debby.

Manatee: There are some pieces that could have pushed Debby to Texas, but those seem to not be working out this time around. Thanks for the update on the situation!