|Overall Risk for Saturday|
|Probability of severe weather for Saturday|
Start of the day will have a very capped atmosphere that will persist through noontime and begin to degrade into the early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to break the cap in the mid afternoon, as instability rapidly increases and quickly breaks down the capping inversion. As soon as this cap breaks, towering updrafts - potentially violent - will erupt across North Dakota. Supercell structures are expected to rapidly form and begin to work over the area shaded in red above.
Considering that this area has been outlined in the long range outlook for a few days now, I find it very much within the realm of possibility that this slight risk will turn into a moderate risk at some point.