Slight Risk May Transition Into Moderate Risk for North Plains Soon

Overall Risk for Saturday

Probability of severe weather for Saturday

There is a slight risk of severe weather for a portion of the Northern Plains, including North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, for Saturday. This is the beginning of the multi-day severe threat that I have been talking about for the past several days.

Discussion
Start of the day will have a very capped atmosphere that will persist through noontime and begin to degrade into the early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to break the cap in the mid afternoon, as instability rapidly increases and quickly breaks down the capping inversion. As soon as this cap breaks, towering updrafts - potentially violent - will erupt across North Dakota. Supercell structures are expected to rapidly form and begin to work over the area shaded in red above.

Considering that this area has been outlined in the long range outlook for a few days now, I find it very much within the realm of possibility that this slight risk will turn into a moderate risk at some point.

Andrew