Thursday, June 7, 2012

El Nino Watch Issued by NOAA

An El Nino Watch has been issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), specifically the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), as El Nino conditions are expected to develop in the second half of 2012.

You can Click Here for the full CPC discussion on the watch.

Let's take a look at the Scripps/MPI Hybrid ENSO Model to see what it shows.

The Scripps/MPI hybrid shows strong warming in the eastern portion of the ENSO monitoring area, with below normal temperatures being pushed to the west. Into the September-November timeframe, more warming will occur, likely bringing a start to an El Nino that should persist into much of 2013. Through the winter months, the warming looks to expand west still, and the same story stands for March-May 2013.

Ensemble forecasts from what appears to be the UKMET ENSO model show a clear El Nino developing by August, with further strengthening continuing through November. From the spread of the ensembles into November, it does appear that there is low confidence in that month, but I can make out a scenario where the ensembles keep it at this strength through the early 2013 months before weakening the El Nino into spring.

Remember- you can find 120+ weather models at our Weather Models page, including ocean, ENSO and general models.



John in Detroit said...

Forgive my memory, but a strong El Nino in the winter and spring has what effect on the weather in southeastern Michigan? Could you also elaborate on your comments in the article? When will you begin your Winter 2012/2013 forecasts?

Anonymous said...

John, weak/mdt Nino, snow slgtly abv nrml, temps blw nrml. Backloaded winter.

Anonymous said...

Hard to say for Colorado, because we seem to get screwed out of any decent moisture no matter what the anomaly, but why not I'll ask anyways...any chance at all that this El niƱo pattern alleviates or brings an end to this horrible drought during the course of fall, winter, spring of 2012-2013, or do the models show us likely getting shafted for yet another year?