Thursday, July 5, 2012

ENSO Update: July 5, 2012

This is a discussion concerning the latest ENSO conditions.

The latest sea surface temperature anomalies displayed in the image below indicate significant warming has occurred in the eastern and central portions of the ENSO regions of Niño 1+2 and Niño 3. Recently, we have been seeing an increase in temperatures across western portions of the ENSO regions with what appears to be a cooling trend across Niño 1+2 and a bit into Niño 3. Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 appear to be warming, with Niño 3.4 warming more than the other regions, indicating that the incoming El Niño could be more central based to western based.

The GLAAM, shown below, has been tanking negative lately, an increasing sign of an oncoming El Niño. Considering the GLAAM is getting so strong now, some El Niño effects may begin to be shown, with some more precipitation being directed towards the Gulf of Mexico coast and East Coast.

The SOI has been negative as well, signaling an El Niño with a 30 day average of -12. 8 or more defines a La Nina, while a -8 or less shows an El Niño. It is not tremendously negative, indicating that a full blown El Niño is not present just yet, but appears to be on the verge of making its presence known.

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is strongly negative at this time, down to -21. Tropical convection is deeper in a negative QBO, which can indicate an El Niño.

In summary, the atmosphere appears primed to fall into an El Niño state. I will have more information on this in coming days and what this means for winter.



Svr Expert said...

With the way things look, this winter has the POTENTIAL to be a near record cold, snowy winter; IF you are EAST of the Mississippi River. Andrew, do have a post coming out for the svr for the Mid Atltc? Looks great. I know you are on top of it as always. You certainly do an excellent job with your blog! It would be just WRONG how anyone could complain aboiut your blog and how you do. But, there are always people who just complain about everything. You have a very strong supportive base though and they stand by you.

Mike Paulocsak said...

I agree with you Svr EXPERT! This upcoming winter looks very interesting in the snow & cold department.As for the people complaining,if they don't like the way Andrew does his forecasts & predictions,they should keep their comments to their self.I'm also a true follower and blogger!

ERN WX said...

Agreed!!!!!!! I am fond of the idea of a cold and snowy winter east of the Mississip. Mike, perfectly correct!!! Philly area, I am thinking 30-40in poss.!!!!!!!