Wednesday, August 1, 2012

'Ernesto' May Form Later Today

TD-FIVE Has Formed. Click Here

Invest 99 is approaching the point of tropical depression formation, and this could transform into Tropical Storm Ernesto in the next several days. Satellite imagery indicates enhanced convection in the center of this storm system, with a very slight circulation motion seen in the northern flank of the system, as upper level clouds appear to have a small spin to them.

Shearing values over the eastern Atlantic are fairly elevated, with widespread values of 10-25 knots of shearing. This shearing will enhance storms, but getting beyond the 30 knot benchmark may hurt the invest's chances of developing into a tropical system. Tendencies of shearing indicate an increasing shearing region approaching the Caribbean that the invest may have to go through.

Weather model forecasts on Invest 99 are projecting the system to move roughly west-northwest for a while, before a more northwest motion is encountered. During this movement into the Caribbean, model forecasts are scattered in the long range, but have indications of a strength of Invest 99 in the general 45-55 knot wind speed area, bringing the invest to tropical storm strength and bringing 'Ernesto' to life.


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