Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Early Look At Summer/Fall 2013 Reveals La Nina Potential

A look at preliminary long range forecasts from several models indicate that there is indeed potential for a La Nina to develop going into the sumer and fall months. The CCA and CA models, used by the Climate Prediction Center, are forecasting similar situations for the ENSO situation in that they both have a weak La Nina ongoing in the JAS (July-August-September) to NDJ (November-December-January) and possibly beyond that.

It should be noted that these two models are practically the same and are two models of several. That said, take these two for what they're worth, which isn't much for this far out.

This is an ensemble set from the CA model that was described above. The ensembles are in color, and the CA is in black. If we see the ensembles, we can see that the ensembles are in a fair spread, with a few heading to a moderate La Nina and a few others are more in the neutral ENSO situation for fall into early winter.

If you look beyond the fall forecast, you can see that DJF (December-January-February) has all ensemble members in a La Nina, which is something you may want to keep in mind...


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