Tuesday, October 30, 2012

What Are The Models Saying This Winter? Part 2

After I saw how much you all enjoyed the first post on what the models are saying for this winter, I figure you might like another post, examining other models and what their take on winter is.

This is the temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) forecast from what is referred to as the 'CMC1'. This model appears to be based off the CMC model, which doesn't have the best reputation for forecasting. This particular forecast includes a cooler than normal Northwest US, but that's about it as far as below normal temperatures go. Above normal temperatures are found in the entire East US, where anomalies are as high as 3 degrees above normal. As for precipitation, the West Coast is very much below normal, indicating that the storm track wouldn't be too active if this were to verify. The Midwest, Plains and Ohio Valley would be wetter than normal, however, and the Southeast would be below normal. This makes sense, as this resembles a positive PNA scenario and would be very beneficial to the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Plains. However, because the LRC has not taken storms along this path too much, I can't say I'm too confident in it.

I don't really like this forecast because we are about to commence a West-Based El Nino as seen in today's post (click here), and in a West-Based El Nino, you find a warm West US and cool East US. However, when it comes down to it, the El Nino is one of dozens of factors for this winter.

The next forecast of precipitation (top) and temperatures (bottom) comes from the GFDL model, commonly known as one of the hurricane models. The GFDL model shows a very dry Northwest US and below normal Northeast, Great Lakes and Midwest in terms of precipitation. There is a swath of above normal precipitation in the Southeast, however. As for temperatures, a below normal swath of temperatures is found across the Northwest and Northern Plains, while a warmer than normal forecast includes the Plains and Southeast. I can't say I trust this forecast. If you see the warmer than normal water anomalies in the upper right part of the image, you are seeing a negative NAO set-up. This commonly gives the East cool weather. Considering the month of October has been in a negative NAO and Siberia is above normal in snowfall, I disagree with this forecast.

If you like these model forecasts, I will keep putting up more model forecasts when I have the time.



Anonymous said...

Yes, keep showing model forecasts for this winter!

Rev. Keith Moreland said...

Keep it coming Andrew. Your forecasts have become the only ones that we trust. You're way ahead of that place in atlanta that is too far behind in any forecasting, and generally wrong most of the time!