Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Long Range Lookout: Stormy Pattern Continues in Northeast

This is the October 31, 2012 edition of Long Range Lookout.

After the devastation Superstorm Sandy caused across the Northeast, many are likely to be wary when I say that a general stormy pattern looks to take hold across the region. The ECMWF ensembles, shown above in a 500mb height anomaly chart for the next 6-10 day period, shows a ridge building across the West and a stormy signature in the East.

This is shown in model forecasts as coming in at least two systems, which could both hold the potential for some flying snowflakes, however that has yet to be nailed down as a possibility.

Something that is puzzling to me is the lack of a clear negative NAO signature, something that commonly defines a stormy Northeast period. Instead, Greenland seems to be in between a ridge in the south and a stormy pattern to the north. Additionally, other ensemble forecasts are playing out a positive PNA heading negative and a negative NAO heading positive, both of which bode well for a storm track away from the Northeast.

Despite these unknown elements, I believe that the ECMWF Ensembles are on track with this forecast, as other models are showing very similar conditions to the scenario depicted above.


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