Okay everyone, I have some big news.
October is usually a month when preliminary forecasts are released. Me? I prefer to get a jump start when I do long range forecasting- if what i'm seeing is looking pretty solid, I'm not going to keep people hanging for another few weeks when I will just be releasing the same information that I would be now. Why wait when you already have something good going?
So, MONDAY, OCTOBER 8th is the release date of The Weather Centre's FINAL WINTER FORECAST.
I am feeling VERY confident in this forecast, and have compiled data like never before into something I believe has a very good chance of working out.
There is no time stamp yet, but expect it to be out by 5:00 PM CT.
Andrew
7 comments:
Just a hint, will the northeast have a snowy winter? Snowier than normal? Thanks! Especially NJ
Also why are you saying "a winter to remember"? Thanks
I'm hoping northern & eastern Ohio will be in good shape this winter.I need to put my garden tractor to good use to plow snow!!!!!!!!!!
Hi Andrew,
I'm really looking forward to it. I'm a bit surprised that you're not waiting until the end of October (at least if you subscribe to the SAI index; link below with excerpt for those that are interested). Any thoughts on the Siberian snow pack this fall and how it might affect your forecast? The forecast from last fall using SAI was amazingly accurate.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-siberia-to-east-coast-snow-connection/2011/11/29/gIQAitCkCO_blog.html
But Cohen’s study concludes: “...the AO, while thought to be unpredictable, may in fact be one of the most easily predicted phenomenon known in the climate system.”
This viewpoint isn’t universally accepted, and Freedman’s article discusses some alternative ideas.
Irrespective of whether the AO is as predictable as Cohen claims, inquiring minds surely would like to know what Siberia snow cover has done this fall. Freedman’s piece offers the scoop:
Siberian snow cover advanced at almost exactly the normal rate during most of October, with the exception of a dramatic expansion at the end of the month, which has Cohen a little nervous about this year’s forecast. Without a clear Siberian snow signal, he relied more on other factors to make his forecast, including the likelihood of continued La Nina conditions in the Pacific.
In light of all the above, Cohen is predicting a milder than average winter in D.C. and along the East Coast with near normal snowfall. In an email to me today, he offered a little more detail:
I feel that the snow-atmosphere coupling this fall continues to favor a milder winter in the East.
I think the winter starts off overall mild in the East and the better chance of more persistent cold is later in the winter.
Related: Capital Weather Gang’s winter outlook | Is Siberian snow, eastern U.S. cold link legit?"
By Jason Samenow | 10:11 AM ET, 11/30/2011
Ahh!! Four days! I can't wait!
V.exciting. Looking forward to it and the individual forecasts.
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