June 6- Special Tropical Cyclone Update #2- East Pacific Ocean (6:16pm CDT)

This is a second tropical cyclone update that will not be replacing the evening tropical cyclone discussion.

After looking at current infrared imagery of the storm system in the East Pacific, it does look like intense thunderstorm clouds have formed a hook formation at the west end of the potential tropical cyclone.
The infrared imagery does indicate these storms are very intense and their clouds are very high.
That said, The Weather Centre has deemed it necessary to issue another tropical cyclone update.
At this time, I believe there is at least some reason to believe that a tropical depression is forming.
A tropical depression is characterized with a defined circulation and fairly high sustained winds. Unfortunately, we do not have data to represent the sustained wind speeds, but with infrared data suggesting closed circulation is forming, I will presume a tropical cyclone is now forming.
However, I will not be labeling posts with the tropical depression name until the NHC has officially noted that this is a tropical depression/storm.

Place to Be will resume tomorrow

The Place to Be will resume tomorrow in POST FORM instead of on a page.

June 6- Special Tropical Cyclone Update- East Pacific Ocean (4:07 PM CDT)

This is a special tropical cyclone update from The Weather Centre concerning a tropical system in the East Pacific Ocean.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system off the coast of Central America have continued to become organized, and it is now almost certain that this system will become a tropical storm, possibly into hurricane status.
This is only a special update, so we will not be posting any ensembles or tracks. This evening, we will post evening discussions as normal (apologies for no discussion yesterday), and we will post any special updates as needed.

June 6- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

There is a 90% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours for a system located to the west of Central America.
Thunderstorm activity in this system continues to organize itself, and environmental conditions are favorable for more development into a tropical depression and possibly a tropical storm or hurricane.
Looking at the image we do see swirls of banded clouds showing intense thunderstorms. It does appear transformation into a tropical depression/storm is occurring at this time.

There is a very good consensus over what will happen with this system. Current thinking is to take the system out to sea while keeping it close to land at some points. One stray model takes the storm through Mexico, re-emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, but with no other models agreeing, I will also disagree with that solution.

Intensity forecasts are also on a fairly good consensus, with all models letting the storm become a tropical storms, and most models indicating a Category 1 hurricane. 3 models take the system to Category 2 status, and one model prefers a climax at Category 3 hurricane status, classified as a major hurricane.

This system is looking very favorable to develop into a tropical system over the next 2 days, possibly into a hurricane. Stay with The Weather Centre for more information.

June 6- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

There is a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours for a system to the east of Central America.
A large and disorganized area of thunderstorms has been separated into two sections: lowest pressure and most intense thunderstorms. There is a chance for development before upper level winds turn unfavorable.

Regardless of if this storm develops, there is now a real threat of this system hitting land, with nearly all models pointing towards a direct hit on the United States. However, there is a very wide spread in where this hit could occur, and we will not focus in on where the center of that spread is.

Intensity forecasts aren't impressive with this system. While most models give this storm tropical storm status, there is a very wide spread before that happens, and all the models have different solutions. I have decided that a fairly good solution would be to leave this system just below tropical storm status.

This system has a chance at development, but that's about it. We will keep you up to date with the latest weather information on this system.