Wednesday, June 8, 2011

June 8 Severe Weather Discussion

A cold front is connected to a system of low pressures stretching from Canada into the Plains. The low in Canada will progress eastward, and that cold front will then slowly drift southward and ignite showers and thunderstorms inside the very hot and humid air mass in place.
The Rapid Refresh model is showing the radar being fairly active in that time period, in the 30-35 dbz on the radar, which is considered moderate and known as dark green on radar in the color format.
CAPEs should reach past 3000 j/kg in most areas, possibly over 4000 j/kg in Northwest IL.
There doesn't appear to be a cap in place at this time, meaning that only a bit of forcing should be able to produce showers and storms.
I believe the worst storms will be in the Northwest area of this slight risk region, such as Wisconsin and North Michigan.
Today's Tornado Outlook

Today's Wind outlook

Today's Hail outlook

No comments: