Wednesday, June 8, 2011

June 8- Tropical Storm Adrian- Morning Discussion

Tropical Depression ONE-E has strengthened into a tropical storm as expected overnight. The name is Adrian.
Adrian is forecast to keep drifting North northwest, then move quicker and at an angle parallel to land. That is the NHC's forecast. The NHC also projects Adrian to reach Hurricane strength at around 10 am CDT today, which appears to be happening by the infrared satellite imagery we will show you next.
At 11pm EDT Sunday, it is now forecasted that Adrian will weaken to a tropical storm again.
Current Infrared satellite imagery indicates Tropical Storm Adrian is wasting no time getting together its act. The center of circulation is very well organized at this time, and the previously exposed east flank of the storm is quickly filling in.
Bands of showers and storms associated with tropical cyclones are forming in a very organized fashion.
Adrian is a very small storm, but as stated earlier, is in a rush to get its act together.
The ensembles for Adrian's track have reached a consensus good enough for my liking.
That consensus is to keep the storm out to sea, as many models have grouped together and formed that solution. One stray model throws Adrian out towards the Central Pacific Ocean, but I will discount that model as it is the only one with that solution.
Intensity forecasts of Adrians have gone up, with all models predicting Adrian reaching at least Category 1 hurricane strength. Several models go up into Category 2 hurricane strength as well.
There is a sharp drop in intensity about 6 days out. This does not indicate a landfall, but could be from a stronger storm system, cooler waters, there are a lot of things that could lead to Adrian's demise, and we will have to watch and see what does.

Adrian will be strengthening over the next several days and we will bring you updates as they happen.

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