Thursday, August 18, 2011

Long Range Tropical Forecast Discussion (August 25-28)- Issued August 18

This is a Long Range Forecast Discussion, issued on August 18, for a tropical cyclone concern. The areas affected are Florida, and the Southeast portion of the East Coast.
The following images are from the GFS.
Hour 174
This is Hour 174 from the latest GFS model. You can see what appears to be a tropical cyclone just off the tip of Florida. Pressures appear to be very low and precipitation appears to be high. As it is just coming into the picture, there's not much else we can point out yet.
Hour 192
At hour 192, this system has come into the picture with a potential landfall in Southern Florida. Precipitation is absolutely nuts, and it looks like flash flooding is certainly on the table for this situation, no question about it. At this point, it would be good measure to indicate that this cyclone is likely a hurricane at this point, thus a US Landfall with damage could happen.
Hour 216
Pressures may have actually deepened while it is hitting Florida. Major cities like Orlando and Miami are certainly at risk with this may-be hurricane. Precipitation has completely enclosed the apparent center of circulation, ensuring that this system will not end up like the infamous Tropical Storm Emily, where her center of circulation was always exposed and ahead of the main convection.
Hour 240
Finally, at hour 240, the tropical system has exited Florida and made its way into the Georgia region. This certainly could be a stubborn system, as the system may be this strong even while completely on land- a tropical cyclone killer.
We will closely watch this situation as it could become life-threatening. We will brief you again this afternoon and tomorrow.

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