Saturday, January 28, 2012

ECMWF Projecting Ridge to Replace Alaskan Vortex

Click for larger image
0z ECMWF Hour 240 500mb height anomalies
The 0z ECMWF at hour 240 is projecting a very strong ridge to be drifting northeast from the US and possibly into Alaska. From there, things get interesting. If the ridge propels the vortex southeast, where it is currently going, the big low could possibly move into the US. While that is a very long (if not impossible) shot, seeing the direction of the ridge and low system brought up that potential in my mind.
Either way, it looks like there are signs of a +NAO, -EPO in this image.
12z ECMWF Hour 240 500mb height anomalies
The 12z ECMWF has the ridge moving even further towards Alaska, with the trough weaker but still present. The interesting thing is how the trough starts appearing to be trying to swing under the ridge, which would theoretically bring the trough down into the US. Additionally, the 12z ECMWF has a stronger -EPO and a -NAO.


eddie said...

Is this good for detroit

Joshua Steiner said...

positive NAO?! This image looks like a negative NAO with ridging over Greenland.

Andrew said...

Eddie: If the 12z ECMWF verifies, yes.

Joshua: The top image is a +NAO due to the small below normal height anomalies just to the east of Greenland- an east based +NAO.