Saturday, January 28, 2012

Thunderstorm Outlook for January 29, 2012

A clipper system will quickly move across the Plains through the Lower Great Lakes, putting down some light snows. Tomorrow, on Sunday, the low pressure system should move into the Eastern Great Lakes and produce some showers and thunderstorms along a cold front. This cold front will turn into a weak bowing segment. For that reason. . .have decided to put in the potential for gusty winds and small hail, as bowing segments are typically conductive for some gusty winds.
The threat should progress overnight into parts of the Northeast. However. . .confidence is lower as the model we are using (WRF) does not cover that timeframe.


Anonymous said...

Question: If the AO is in a mid - strong negative state, why isn't the North East seeing some cold air? Is cold air filtering into another part of the country? Also, what are the temperature effects during a neutral NAO in the NE?

Thanks Andrew!!
- Reid

Andrew said...

Reid: It takes the right combination of teleconnections to make something work. It looks like a -AO/-NAO doesn't cut it this time around. Hopefully the raging +PNA coming up and phase 7 MJO will change that.

ERN WX said...

It is a vigorous little system!!! Has some nasty squalls!!! Did you get anything, Andrew? We need one of these critters to phase with some southern energy!!!