(Out of 12 ensembles)
NORTH CAMP: 8 ensembles (67%)
SOUTH CAMP: 4 ensembles (33%)
Now, of course, many things will change- that was simply for just a glance at it.
Something that makes me think about this storm is checking out the teleconnections.
Here's the PNA forecast.
|Most Recent PNA Forecasts|
|Positive PNA Phase|
Something else we can use to check out the storm is the NAO and AO. In the positive phase of the NAO, we see warm temperatures across the East US. The big snowstorms usually fall during a negative NAO. In the ensembles, we have checked and see a -NAO developing on the forecasts. This would bring the biggest snows to the Northeast, theoretically.
The AO is forecast to be negative during this timeframe, which would supply the cold air as well as increase chances for snow for the East US.
But here's where the buck stops for the Northeast's big snow possibility: The MJO.
In my opinion, I think that while some indices are pointing toward a total Northeast Snowstorm, i'm going to have to go with a Midwest/Northeast shared snow event for now. Based on the strong MJO combined with a strong PNA and subsequent -NAO/-AO, it seems likely that the end result will be a shared snowstorm with these two regions. Another thing that enhances my shared snowstorm theory is how the ensembles are more unified with that idea than a pure northeast snowstorm. In this winter where the models are doing poorly, I find much more confidence in a group consensus rather than just one person's idea of a scenario.