February 14-18 Possible Snow Event (Issued 2/11/12)
The new 0z model suite is suddenly showing something of a consensus for this piece of energy. The GFS and NOGAPS models are showing the storm going through central Illinois and NW Indiana before riding the Great Lakes and into New York. While time frames are not exactly the same (a few hours difference), that is more than expected with this long range of a storm. The models are not the only things to look at, so let's get on with the show to the ensembles.
Here are the GGEM (CMC) ensembles from the 0z model suite. Some of the members are indeed showing the storm going through any part of the state of Illinois. However, most of the members are centered in the bottom 2/3rds of the state of Illinois. Because it is so far out I am not going to bite on it, but I am definitely interested with this sudden consensus.
This is the NOGAPS collection of ensemble members, also called FNMOC Ensembles. Again, the NOGAPS Ensembles are showing the possible storm going anywhere from Tennessee into Wisconsin, but the majority of members are tracking the storm through South Illinois, North Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio. This is an interesting image, as NOGAPS appears to have a lot of ensemble members, and a lot of them are indeed projecting the storm to actually go through the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Finally, here are the 0z NCEP Ensemble members. They are a little more cautious than the NOGAPS Ensembles, with some members taking the storm through all of Illinois, north Ohio. The 0z GFS is once again showing the storm going through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, but now much weaker. This may be what I have seen the models suddenly go south with a storm but eventually re-emerge the storm north to where it was originally forecasted to go. That does not happen every time, but has happened before.
You may ask questions on if you will get snow as I am feeling more confident than yesterday with this new possible consensus.