Saturday, October 11, 2014

Southeast & Gulf Coast 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

This is a regional winter forecast for the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions. For more winter forecasts, please visit the 2014-2015 Winter Forecast Directory.

The Weather Centre
In terms of temperatures, a generally below-normal outlook is favored. This comes as analog years suggest much of the Central and East US to be under negative 500mb height anomalies, resulting in cold weather thanks to a favorable global weather pattern. The cold may not be as intense in Florida, as the jet stream is suppressed south from time to time, allowing warmer weather to surge north on intervals. However, areas north may find themselves in for a chilly winter.

With respect to precipitation, I'm expecting most of the Gulf Coast to emerge in March 2015 with a wetter than normal winter having just finished up. In typical El Nino set-ups, the jet stream is pushed south due to upper-latitude blocking, something that may unfold again this winter. The Southeast region - that is, to the north of Florida and the Gulf Coast - may see relatively average to slightly below-average anomalies, particularly in the northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and into Tennessee.

Snowfall is expected to be average to slightly below average, but a lengthy discussion is not needed, since snow is pretty much nonexistent for the Gulf Coast and most of the Southeast.


1 comment:

Frank-0 said...

Andrew: I just cannot stop reading and re-reading all of your posted outlooks. The time and effort you have given this is just mind-blowing!!! The amount of data this year is staggering and I have spent several days pouring over it all! Hats Off!!!! For a outstanding job!!!
I do have some concerns/ questions, and I may find the answers for them when the rest of your outlooks are posted and I read them....... Here is some "food for thought" when you get time....
I am sitting here watching the jet stream getting ready to "buckle" deep into the SouthEast next week and we are now into the 3rd straight day of rain with a projected 4 more days coming this week for a total of 7 straight. Which would bring us to 9 days of rain all ready this month.
We are on track for a wet October here in North Carolina. Which should spell a wet winter here in North Carolina. Taking into consideration the LCR.
Also as a side note... It is snowing (light 3 to 5 inches) in a and around Aspen Colorado and has been for the last 3 days also snowing in and around Yellowstone lake area in Wyoming. More fuel for the LCR?......One last thought and question: Since you prepare your forecast well before October and you cannot factor in the LRC, how does that affect your long term outlooks, and will you have to consider changes come November when we have a idea of what the LRC is going to be.