June 7- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

There is a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation for a system to the east of the Central America region.
Upper level winds are now becoming less favorable for development for this system, and already, the showers and storms associated with this system almost look to have abandoned the center of the system.

The track of this system has reached a good consensus of two solutions. One solution is for the system to be thrown out to sea. The other is for landfall around Louisiana.
To those concerned about landfall in Louisiana, this system will not be getting any stronger in it's lifetime.

A couple of models have altogether dropped out of the intensity forecasts, and the models that stayed keep the image of a non tropical storm low pressure system. The one model that does make a tropical storm is wrong.

I expect this system to dissipate, and this will be the final discussion issued for this system. However, daily discussions will still be issued.

June 6: Tornado Warning (Tornado Sighted)- Billings, MT

...A TORNADO WARNING 
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 
930 PM MDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL YELLOWSTONE AND 
SOUTH CENTRAL MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES...

AT 854 PM MDT...TRAINED 
WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
BROADVIEW. THIS TORNADO 
WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
MUSSELSHELL COUNTY...OR 
18 MILES SOUTH OF ROUNDUP...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY AT 910 PM MDT
  RURAL NORTHERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY AT 910 PM MDT

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN 

EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL STILLWATER AND WEST CENTRAL

YELLOWSTONE COUNTIES...

AT 831 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS 

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LAUREL...OR 16 MILES EAST

OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  LAUREL BY 845 PM MDT...

Extreme Heat expected June 7-8 2011

Extreme heat is expected across much of the United States as the jet stream shoots north nearly into Canada.

Under NO circumstances at ANY time should children or pets be left in cars for ANY period of time.
This is a much more serious situation than you think.

June 6- Evening Tropical Cyclone Discussion- East Pacific Ocean

This system is and was the star of our two special tropical cyclone updates today. There is a near 100% chance of development over the next 48 hours with a system to the west of Central America.
Showers and thunderstorm activity has changed little in recent hours. It will only take a slight increase in organization for a tropical depression or storm to form out of this.

It does appear we will be dealing with a tropical cyclone system, so our first priority is knowing where this system will go. There is a very good solution in the works at this time, with many of the models taking this storm out to sea in more of a drifting motion.
There has been a model or two pointing towards a landfall of this storm, and it is evident that a couple models have joined this solution. However, it is not enough for me to agree with that solution at this time.

Intensity forecasts are our next item, and they are definitely eye candy in the tropical cyclone world. All models take this system into at least a tropical storm stage. However, Category 1 hurricane status has been rapidly diminishing in the way of prospects in the last day.
We see some models diving down about 3-4 days away. What that could mean is a landfall of this system. Those 3 or 4 models suddenly diving down about 96 hours out are spelling a situation that would likely indicate a landfall of this system.

We had been focusing on infrared imagery last time we posted, especially a hook in the west flank of this storm system. However, we can see it dissipated.
But more importantly is how tight these clouds are getting. Despite my earlier prediction being wrong, I do believe that a defined center of circulation is being formed in this system, spelling out a tropical depression or storm. I do believe a tropical storm/depression is currently forming or may form soon.

This storm system will be keeping our system busy for the next few days, and we will post updates as needed.

June 6- Evening Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

There is a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 2 days for a system off the east coast of Central America.
A large low pressure system has changed little over the last several hours. The window is closing for development of this system as upper level winds will become unfavorable for development tomorrow.

Regardless of development, we have to know where this system will know. In pretty much the same solution as this morning, there is still a very large spread, with this ensemble suite taking the low anywhere from Louisiana to out in the Atlantic Ocean.
There is a slight consensus in some areas, such as taking the low out to sea and taking it to the west of Florida. That's about the best we can scrape out of the barrel in the ways of possible storm tracks.

The ensembles are done with this system and no longer project it to reach tropical cyclone status (then again, not many did in the first place.) There is a nice consensus for 2 days out, in which the system does not make it through the window of opportunity and dissipates shortly thereafter. Some models carry on that storm through the 5 days with little change in strength, maybe a slight downward turn in strength.

Infrared returns from this storm aren't too impressive, with very little organization and no defined circulation. There is only one band of somewhat intense thunderstorms, and for a good organization, it would be ideal for more organization and thunderstorms on the west flank of this storm system.

This storm will probably miss the window of opportunity and carry on its business, probably out to sea away from land and dissipate from there.