Saturday, September 8, 2012

Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast: Mid-Atlantic

Temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic this winter should be below normal based on my analogs for this winter. The analogs I have are showing a strong negative NAO, and this will be able to buckle the jet stream and let cold air flow south. Additionally, the Southeast ended up cooler than normal in the analogs I am using, enhancing the probability that the entire East US will end up below normal in the temperature department.

As for precipitation, persistent coastal storms from a strong sub-tropical jet stream will enable the Mid-Atlantic to end up snowier than normal. A persistant negative NAO has led the stratosphere to average levels, which, unlike last year, will enable better chances for snow and cold in the Eastern US. In more inland areas, it can be expected that more of an ice risk will develop, thanks to warmer air in the South, combined with cool air from the North.



Anonymous said...

will Charlotte NC get any snow or cold? thanks

Anonymous said...

Is it possible to make any determination as to when the first snow will fall inBaltimore?


Andrew said...

Anonymous 1: Your area will need to watch the El Nino to see if it properly evolves.

Anonymous 2: That is quite long range, and I don't believe it is possible (within an accurate range).

Derek Wilson said...

What About Durham, NC? Is it More so towards Snow than Ice?

Anonymous said...

Hi, how many snow days should central southern VA get?