Saturday, September 8, 2012

Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast: Great Lakes

The Great Lakes forecast will only be for precipitation.

I am expecting a snowy winter for the Great Lakes. Based on observations on the stratosphere, the lower strat. is at normal values for this time of year, indicating the possibility of a negative NAO. With the negative NAO, the jet stream buckles and sends frigid air south that typically ignites the lake effet snow machine for those in blue. An El Nino typically does enhance a negative NAO, and this, combined with the favorable stratosphere values, should bring more than a few shots of arctic air southward into the Great Lakes region. Add a couple of degrees above average that the Lakes are currently at, and this winter could be very white.




WinterStorm said...

Hello Andrew! First of all, VERY well done with all of the winter forecasts! Second, I have a question. I can definately see the Snowbelts getting above normal snowfall, with the lakes being so warm. So what about areas that aren't in the lake-effect snow regions, like southeast Michigan? Will we be getting above or below, or just average? Sorry about all of the questions, and have a good day!

Anonymous said...

Hey Andrew, thank you for the Winter Forecast! Connecticut should get some snows this year! Anyway, I like how I'm seeing some lake-effect showers pop up along the Great Lakes area thanks to this cold front and cool air running over the lakes. Certainly good to see the lake effect machines are up and ready to run for the winter! Best of luck to the snow-belt areas!

(Some of those showers are pretty potent!)

- RW

Mor Electric Heating said...

I am seeing alot of conflicting forecasts for Michigan. Everyone seems to be forecasting a snowy winter for the Northeast,and dividing the USA into a Western/Eastern half of the nation as warmer/colder. Very odd.

And Michigan seems to be the big wildcard.

The brutal winters that the USA had in 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 were not as much of a shock in Michigan as other states. It was 1976-1977 and 1977-1978 that everyone remembers. If the arctic blasts setup this coming winter, then I think our luck may have run out.

Andrew said...

WinterStorm: Thanks for the appreciation! SE Michigan is in a battle zone with the El Nino. If it does not evolve into the atmosphere, snow is likely, Otherwise, it may be a little dry.

RW: The lake effect showers can definitely be aggressive: I once got a full foot out of the blue when I was by the lake one day!

Mor Electric Heating: Michigan is indeed a wild card. If the El Nino evolves into the atmosphere, snow is less likely than normal. However, a lack of this evolution would bring a snowier winter.

Amanda said...

I'm getting married in southwest Michigan in the beginning of January. Is there typically a lot of snowfall during this time or is it anticipated?