Saturday, September 8, 2012

Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast: Ohio Valley

The winter forecast for the Ohio Valley, temperature-wise, looks to be on the cool side, especially on the eastern side. An average stratospheric temperature, combined with the recent -NAO trend has me believing that this winter will contain more instances of a negative NAO than we saw last year. Additionally, El Ninos are favorable for negative NAO's, altogether increasing the potential for the North Atlantic Oscillation to be in a negative phase. And that, my friends, leads to below normal temperatures. However, I only highlighted the eastern part of the region, as Nor'easters should pull down cool air from Canada as or after they pass through, lowering temperatures.

The precipitation forecast was not all that difficult. As mentioned above, the NAO is expected to be negative this winter, and this brings the possibility for big coastal storms. Should the big ones bring a wide precipitation shield, I would not be surprised to see the eastern Ohio Valley end up with more precipitation than normal. However, that is not as confident as I would like, as Nor'easters are big storms, and big storms are much harder to correctly predict. However, I have confidence that the negative NAO will bring lake effect snow to the eastern Ohio region, pumping out more snow than normal as the lakes are a few degrees above normal.


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