Saturday, September 8, 2012

Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast: Midwest

The forecast for the Midwest this winter is varied. In western states, such as Iowa and Minnesota, residents can expect a warmer winter than average, but likely only slightly. The provocation of a negative NAO appears likely, given the incoming El Nino and analogs suggesting such a situation may pan out. That said, the mentioned areas can expect shots of cold air to visit from time to time, but a warmer winter should emerge after all is set and done.
As for eastern sections of the Midwest, like Illinois and Indiana, a negative NAO situation should be able to force Alberta Clippers into the region, followed by cold Canadian air. There are signals from that that these areas may get a bit below average, but that remains to be seen.

Recent drought trends, and an impending El Nino tell me that there is a likelihood of below normal precipitation in areas away from the lake shores. However, this could easily be busted, should a big storm come through the area and drop a foot or two of snow (preferably the latter). Clippers could save this winter, and the -NAO may be able to help, but with the lack of a guarantee on that proposition, I have inserted dry anomalies into portions of the Midwest.



Anonymous said...

Nice info Andrew.
Much better than wading thru an Accuweather "forum" thread forever!
Clippers can be pretty sparse w their snow at least in Southern WI /MKE area.

Andrew said...

Glad you like it! The threads, while helpful, can get a little hectic at times.