Saturday, September 8, 2012

Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast: North Plains

Temperature forecasts for the Northern Plains this winter were a little on the tricky side, mainly trying to figure out how far east the ridge in the Northwest will extend. That said, I took a bit of a gamble and went against my analogs in deciding that the Northern Plains may end up warmer than normal. I find it likely that there will be some breaks in that warm trend and cold air will return, but for how long is the question.

In the precipitation department, the lack of a strong jet stream and displacement of that jet stream to the south will end up with a winter below normal. Clipper systems will still come and go, but the lack of stronger systems in the area will prove fatal to hopes for a wetter winter than is typical. I am watching this region closely, as the forecasts are a bit less confident than I would want them to be. That said, this is more of an educated estimate than a forecast at the moment.


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