Saturday, September 8, 2012

Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast: Northeast

Temperatures for the Northeast are expected to remain below normal this winter, as an El Nino sets up. The El Nino will strengthen the sub-tropical jet stream, which will then curve up the coast with strong coastal storms. These coastal storms will draw cold air down from Canada, and potentially keep it in place after the storms leave. Should a persistent negative NAO develop, this forecast may be even cooler than shown. Analogs I used in the national Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast show a strong west-based negative NAO that would ensure cold and snow would frequent this area.

As for precipitation, this winter looks to be planning a beating for the Northeast, with my analogs and personal knowledge of El Nino's combining to make this winter one many will not forget soon. I am projecting the Northeast to be a snow haven, as the sub-tropical jet catches weak storms and 'bombs' them out as they travel up the East Coast.
I am not ruling out the occasional ice storm in parts of the southern Northeast, as warm air in the South may mix in with the cool air being pulled south by the coastal storms.

Andrew

1 comment:

Tyler Smith said...

hi

what are we going to have as far as el neno west east or central??

please reply

thanks