Saturday, September 8, 2012

Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast: Southeast

The temperature forecast for the Southeast is pretty tricky. This winter, we will be in an El Nino which, as of now, looks like it has a shot of being west-based. Should we see a more west-based El Nino, I would expect temperatures to possibly get even cooler than what is shown above.
I am projecting cool temperatures to reign supreme this winter, as consistent storms push down a lot of sunlight that would otherwise heat the ground. Additionally, climatologically, an El Nino supports cooler than normal temperatures in the Southeast. This suspicion is confirmed on my analogs in the national winter forecast issued a half hour ago.
I am watching the potential for a warmer than normal spot of temperatures in the far northwest portion of the Southeast, as dry conditions in the Ohio Valley may contribute a warmer atmosphere to the region.

As for precipitation, the charged and active sub-tropical jet will continuously steer storms up the coast, soaking the Southeast in the process. My analogs for this winter confirm that history shows that situations like these end up wetter than normal for the Southeast. It should be noted that the Southeast may be in line for a severe weather risk, as jet stream winds combine with strengthening storm systems to produce a potentially active situation.
The proximity to the Ohio Valley puts the northwest corner of the region at a disadvantage in the precipitation department, as that region is not favored for heavier precipitation during an El Nino.



Calvin said...

How many inches of snowfall do you foresee ATL receiving this upcoming winter?

what about potential ice storms?

Andrew said...

Predicting inches is not a thing that I feel comfortable forecasting, mainly because of how much error can mess things up.

Ice storm potential is definitely there.

Anonymous said...

So basically you think the southeast will see way more snowfall than last year?

Anonymous said...

We live in Huntsville, Alabama. Last year we had a very warm winter, and the kids never needed their winter gear. The year before, we had blizzards and heavy snowfall—that is to say for a Southern city. Should I buy all new gear for the kids this year? Will I get my money's worth out of it? Thank you for your advice.

Anonymous said...

what is winter going to be like this in hartwell ga.last year it was warm and this year it started off warm and now cold.